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W. B. No. 519. 



Is.sno.(l Decomber 27, 19U. 



U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
WEATHER BUREAU 

C. F. MARVIN, Chief 



THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI FLOODS 

OF 1912 



Bulletin Y 



BY 

H. C. FRANKENFIELD 

Professor of Meteorology 




WASHINGTON 

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 

1913 






% 



^E 






D. OF D. 
FEB H 1914 



LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL. 



United States Department of Agriculture, 

Weather Bureau, Office of the Chief, 

Washinc/ton, D. C, October 2, 1913. 
The honorable the Secretary of Agriculture. 

Sir: I have the honor to transmit herewith a report on the Ohio and Mississippi floods of 
1912, prepared by H. C. Frankenfiehl, professor of meteorohjg}^, United States AVeather Bureau. 
I recommend the pnblication of this report as a bulletin of the Weather Bureau. 
Very respectfull}^, 

C. F. Marvin, Chief of Bureau. 
Approved. 

B. T. Galloway, Acting Secretary. 



LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS. 



CHARTS. 



1. Drainage basin of the Mississippi River. 

2. Weatlier map 8 a. m. March 11, 1932, and precipitation during following 24 lionrs. 

3. Weather map 8 a. m. March 14, 1912, and precipitation during following 24 hours. 

4. Weather map 8 a. m. March 20, 1912, and precipitation during following 24 hours. 
'5. Weather map S a. m. March 23, 1912, and precipitation during following 24 hours. 

6. Weather map 8 a. m. March 28, 1912, and precipitation during following 24 hours. 

7. Weather map 8 a. m. April 1, 1912, and precipitation during following 24 hours. 

8. Depth of snow on ground March 4, 1912. 

9. Depth of snow, on ground March 11, 1912. 

10. Depth of snow on ground March 18, 1912. 

11. Depth of snow on ground March 25, 1912. 

12. Normal and actual precipitation January, 1912. 

13. Normal and actual precipitation February, 1912. 

14. Normal and actual precipitation March, 1912. 

3 5. Normal and actual precipitation January 1 to April 2, 1912. 
16. Departure from normal precipitation January, 1912. 
3 7. Departure from normal precipitation February, 1912. 

15. Departure from normal precipitation March 1 to April 2, inclusive. 1912. 

19. Departure from normal precipitation January 1 to April 2, inclusive. 1912. 

20. Normal and actual precipitation January, 1882. 

21. Normal and actual precipitation February, 1882. 

22. Normal and actual precipitation March, 1882. 

23. Normal and actual precipitation Januaiy and February, 1882. 

24. Departure from normal precipitation January, 1882. 

25. Departure from normal precipitation February, 1882. 

26. Departure from normal precipitation January 1 to February 28, inclusive, 1882. 

27. Normal and actual precipitation January, 1897. 

28. Normal and actual precipitation February, 1897. 

29. Normal and actual precipitation March, 1897. 

30. Departure from normal precipitation February, 1897. 

31. Departure from normal precipitation March, 1897. 

32. Departure from normal precipitation February 1 to March 31. inclusive, 1897. 

33. Normal and actual precipitation January, 1903. 

34. Normal and actual precipitation February, 1903. 

35. Normal and actual precipitation March, 1903. 

DIAGRAMS. 

4. Crest stages in Ihe Mississippi River during tloods of 18S2. 1S97, 190:;',, 1912, and 1913. 

II. Crest stages in principal tributaries during flocxls of 1882. 1897, 1903, 1912, and 1913. 
III. Hydrographs for floods of 1912. 
lY. Hydrographs for flood of 1882. 

V. Hydrographs for flood of 1897. 
■\'I. Hydrographs for flood of 1903, 



TABLE OF CONTENTS. 



Letter of transmittal 

The Ohio and Mississippi floods of 1912 

Drainage basin of the Mississij^pi River 

Flood frequency 

Causes of Mississippi River floods 

The flood of 1912 

Its origin and progress 

Duration 

Crest stages .' 

Crest stages compared with previous highest water. , 

Comparison with floods of 1882, 1897, and 1903 

Precipitation 

Crest stages 

Duration 

Volume 

Relative importance of the four floods 

Effects of levee construction 

Losses and damage 

The work of the Weather Bureau in the forecasting of floods. 



Page. 
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21 
22 
22 
21 
22 
23 



ERRATA. 
Delete the words "I'art I" on all of tlie charts and diatrrnius ac(;om|iaiiyiiig this paper. 

9 



THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI FLOODS OF 1912. 

By H. C. Fkankenfield, Professor of Meteorology. 



The Drainage Basin of the Mississippi River. 



A full description of the character and extent of the basin of the Mississippi River will 1k' 
found in Bulletin E (Weather Bureau, 1897) and in the Annual Report of the Chief of the 
Weather Bureau, 1896-7, and those who desire more detailed information are referred to these 
publications. From them it is learned that the great drainage basin of the Mississippi River 
comprises an area of about 1,240,050 square miles, or about 41 per cent of the total area of the 
L^nited States, exclusive of Alaska, and extending between the Allegheny and the Rocky Moun- 
tains through 56° of longitude and 21° of latitude. There are six grand subdivisions, five of 
them comprising, the watersheds of the largest tributaries, and the names and areas of the six 
subdivisions are as follows (see chart 1, appendix) : 



Table I. 



Designation. 


Area in square 
miles. 


Ratio to whole 
basin. 


Ohio Basin 


201, 700 
165, 900 
527, 150 
186, 300 
90, 000 
69, 000 




0. 16 


Upper Mississippi Basin 


13 


Missouri Basin 


.43 


Arkansas Basin 


. 15 


Red Basin 


.07 


Cent ral Valley 


.06 








Total 


1, 240, 050 




1.00 







Flood Frequency, 

In the Ohio River and in the Mississippi River below Cairo, 111., years without floods are 
exceptional, while in the Mississippi River above Cairo stages above the flood line, as measured 
by the gage heights at St. Louis, Mo., are the exception rather than the rule, occurring on 
an average about one year in every four or five. Prior to the nineteenth century little is known 
of the occurrence of floods except through more or less authentic tradition. Of the lower Missis- 
sippi floods, the most notable occurred in 1815, 1828, 1844, 1849, 1850, 1851, 1858, 1859, 1862, 1865, 
1867, 1874, 1882, 1884, 1890, 1893, 1897, 1903, and 1912, being 19 years in all, or an average of one 
flood to about each six j^ears. In the upper Mississippi River the 3'ears of marked high water, as 
measured on the St. Louis gage, were 1785, 1811. 1823. 182G, 1844, 1851, 1855, 1858, 1862, 1881. 
1883, 1892, 1903, and 1909, being 14 in all, or an average of one flood to about each nine j^ears. 
The greatest lower Mississippi flood, measured b}^ the flood height, occurred in 1912, while in 
the upper Mississippi the greatest flood was probably that of 1785, " L'annee des grandes eaux," 
when the river at St. Louis is said to have reached a stage corresponding to a height of 42 feet 

11 



12 OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI FLOODS OF 1012. 

Oil the prosoiit gage, or O.C) foot higluT thiin tho stage of June -28. 1844. Ilowover, the stage 
of 4'2 feet in 1785 is not one of actual record, but of tradition only, and the flood of 1844 is 
usually considered to havo heen the greatest of upper Mississippi and lower Missouri floods. 

Causes of Mississippi Eia"ek Fi^oods. 

The noi-nial rains of late winter and early spring over the lower Mississippi Valley are 
usually sufficient to bring the rivers almost to the flood stage from Cairo to the Gulf of Mexico. 
Then, if the spring rains over the Ohio Basin are heaviei- than usual, an enormous volume of 
water from the main river and the swift-running mountain tributaries is brougb.t down upon 
the lower Mi.ssissip])i. alicady at liaid'C-full stage, and a disastrous flood results. If the Avinter 
hapi)ened to be a moderately cold c)ne. with plenty of snow laying upon the ground, there would 
be a further increment from the melted snows, as the spring rains are almost invariably accom- 
panied by high lciu|)(Ma(ures. Thus the Ohio and the lower Mississippi Elvers alone can 
produce a great flood, independently^ of the upper ^Fississippi and the great western tributaries 
of the lower river. The upper iMississipj^ji. while in itself incapable of causing a flood in the 
lower river, yet. rising later than the Ohio, as a I'ule. serves to prolong the high water and 
at times to increase somewhat the stages from Cairo southward. Fortunately the lower western 
tributaries thus far do not api^ear to have pla3-ed an important part in flood causation, yet the 
possibility of sinudtaneous floods in both the eastern and the western tributaries and in the 
main stream is ever present: and should this condition arise, the residting stages between Cairo 
and the Gulf would probably be higher than have j'et been recorded. 

It appears that the precipitation that directly causes the Ohio and Mississippi floods is 
due to a single type of storm known as " The Southwest " tj^pe, for the reason that usually it 
is fii"st observed in definite formation over the southwestern portion of the country. These 
storms move in fi'om the Pacific Ocean, the majority of I hem by way of the north coast, whence 
they move southeastward through the great plateau until they reach western Texas, when thej^ 
turn northeastward over the Ohio Valley and the Lake region with increased development and 
velocity of movement, accompanied by heavy rains and high temperatures over the Gulf States 
and the Ohio Valley, and fie(|ueully by snow to (he northward. A small portion moves 
inland by way of California, and a still smaller portion b}' way of Mexico, but, with rare excep- 
tions, all reach Texas and move northeastward as indicated above. None api^ears to develop 
true storm conditions until Texas is reached, and about 95 per cent of them are preceded and 
accompanied by heavy rains and high tem]jeratures to the eastward and southeastward, and by 
rains and snows to the northward. If the temperatures to the northward range between 25 
and 32° F. the snowfall will be heavy, both as to quantit}' and character. Flood probability 
depends upon the number and time of occurrence of these southwest storms, and, of course, 
somewhat upon the antecedent conditions. The storms usually begin in February and continue 
during Mairh and at times a i)ortion of April. If the early winter has been a cold one, result- 
ing in a frozen .soil and the accumulalion of a considerable amount of .snow over the Ohio water- 
shed, (he flood probabilit}' will be increased. If there should be but a single storm, or even 
if there should be several storms sei)ara(ed by consideralile intervals of time, the flood wa\e 
will Ik? short and the river stages only moderately high, but if there should be a series of stoiins. 
separated by intervals of only a few days, as in the present year, a severe flood is certain, and 
its intensity will Ik- limited only by the amount of precipitation, which in any event is almost 
• •erlain to be heavy. The accumulated snowfall will usually go out with the first storm, and, 
if the early winter has been cold, the run-ofl' fiom the first one or two storms will obviously 
lie greater than ihe normal run-otF. The normal winter and spring rainfall over the Gulf 
."-^lates is comparatively heavy and any considerable increase in the amount, if distributed 
over an extended period of (ime. will bring \]\o lower Mississippi and the Yazoo ]vivers to 
stages above the flood line and while in this condition the extensive flood wave from the Ohio 
""111- ill, provided (he direction of storm movemenl has been about normal. If, bv anv chance, 



OITIO AND MISSISSIPPI FLOODS OF li)12. IB 

tl:e slcriu ceiiLers, oi anj immber of tliein, should pass to the soutliwurd of the Ohio Valley, 
the ])recipitation over tliat district would be much less in quantity and the temperature would 
be much lower, thereby preventing the melting of any considerable quantity of the snow that 
might be on the ground. Consequently the lower Mississippi flood would pass into the Gulf of 
Mexico without unusual incident unless additional heavy rains should bring the western ti'ibu- 
laries to very high stages — a comparativelj'^ infrequent occurrence and one not of any con- 
siderable moment so far as the lower river itself is concerned — as the Ohio River is the principal 
factor in the question. 

The Flood of 1912. 

The annual rise of the lower Mississippi River for the year 1912 began on February 21, at 
which time a severe storm from the Southwest Avas moving northeastward over the lower Missis- 
sippi and the Ohio Valleys, attended Iw general and heavy rams. A second storm of similar 
character moved northeastward four days later, and the rise was well under way in the lower Ohio 
River and in the lower Mississippi between Cairo and the mouth of the Arkansas River. By the 
end of February the Ohio River was above the flood stage from Evansville, Ind., to Shawnee- 
town. 111., while the Mississippi was rising rapidly as far south as the mouth of the Red River, 
and had nearly reached the flood stage of .34 feet at New Madrid, Mo. The winter had been 
a cold one, without much snow over that portion of the Ohio watershed where it would have 
remained on the ground for any considerable period after it had fallen, and it so happened that 
on February 26 there was no accumulated snowfall over any portion of the Ohio River water- 
shed except a negligible quantity over central and southern Indiana and southeastern Illinois. 
There were no heavy rainstorms probable in the near future, and consequently no immediate 
fears of a great flood. While rains and snows were comparatively frequent during the first 
decade of March, they were not heavy, and after March 4 the Ohio River at Cairo began to 
fall after reaching a stage of 41.8 feet, 3.2 feet below the flood stage. Shorth^ afterwards the 
MississijDpi River began to fall at ISTew Madrid and the fall continued for about 10 days, but 
did not extend below the mouth of the Arkansas River, as the occasional rains were sufficient 
to maintain the original rise from above. On ]March 10 an extensive barometric depression 
moved in from the Pacific Ocean to southern California, and by the. following morning it had 
reached Kansas, with a secondaiy storm center reaching down over southeastern Texas. During 
the day (March 11) the general disturbance moved eastward and northeastward over the 
normal path of southwestern storms, and moderately heavy rains, averaging less than 1.5 inch, 
fell over Louisiana and Mississippi. Over the Ohio Basin the rains, while well distributed, 
were not heavy, and some light snow fell, the quantity being just about sufficient to maintain 
the average depth of fi'om 1 to 3 inches that had covered that portion of the Ohio watershed 
north of Tennessee since the earliest days of March. While this storm was moving across the 
countrj'' another appeared on the north Pacific coast. It moved southeastward over the dis- 
tricts west of the Rock}^ Mountains, and by the time (March 14) that the preceding stonn had 
passed off the Newfoundland coast, the second one had moved to Kansas, accompanied, like its 
immediate predecessor, by a secondary depression extending southward over southeastern 
Texas. During the succeeding 24 hours rains again fell over Louisiana and IMississippi and 
extended into the lower Ohio Valley, with lighter rains above. The heaviest rains fell over 
the Yazoo Valley, but the quantity was not excessive. The rains did not continue for more 
than 24 hours, as a rule, but they were sufficient to take out the little snow that covered the 
Ohio watershed and to augment a rise in the upper Ohio River that had set in after the rains 
from the preceding storm, and also to start another rise in the lower Ohio and in the Mississippi 
from Cairo to New Madrid. At the same time the Missouri River east of Kansas City and the 
Mississippi from Alton, 111., to Cairo began to rise. This second storm passed into the north 
Atlantic Ocean during the night of March 15-16, and during the next four days there was no 
precipitation of consequence over the Ohio and lower Mississippi watersheds. On the morning 



14 



OHIO AND MiSSlSSiri'l FLOODS OF 1912. 



of March 19 a disturbance was central over Utah, and at thi> time some of the river stages Avere 

af" follows: 

Table II. — River stages, Mar. 19, 1912. 



StAtion. 


River. 

• 


Flood stage. 


Stage, 
Mar. 19. 


Cincinnati, Ohio 

Evansvillo, Ind 


Ohio 

do 


Feet. 
50 
35 
40 
25 
43 
45 
22 
13 
30 
34 
33 
42 


Feel. 
46.6 
37.2 


Na.-ihvillo, Tenn 

,Iolin.*^on\*ille Tcnn 


Cumberland 

Tennessee 


37.9 
26.8 


Paducah, Ky.- . .-- 


Ohio 


36.1 


Cairo, 111...". . 


do 


40.4 


Kan!?a.s Cilv Mo 


Missouri 


8.9 


Ilannilial. Mo 


Mississippi 


6.2 


8t. Lniiis. Mo 


do 


18.7 


Ni'w Madrid, Mo • 


do 


31.6 


Memphi.-;, Tenn 


do 


29.2 


Helena, .\rk 


.do 


37.4 









At Helena the second rise of the month was just about to begin. 

The Utah depression, the third storm of the month, moved over the Ohio Valle}- by way of 
Oklahoma and Arkansas, somewhat to the northward of its immediate predecessors, with 
moderate rains aiid snows above Cairo, but with little or none below. The precipitation from 
this storm apparently had no effect other than to check the decline in the upper Ohio River, 
and the storm center passed into the north Atlantic Ocean during the night of March 21-22. 
However, another storm had apj^eared over Arizona, and an offshoot from it traversed the 
usual path over Texas, reaching the Ohio Vallej'^ on the morning of March 24, when the Mis- 
souri River east of Kansas City, the Mississippi from Alton to New Orleans, and the Ohio, 
Cumberland, Tennessee, and Wabash Rivers were rising steadily. The rainfall i-esulting from 
this fourth storm was the heaviest of the montli. beginning on March 22 over Louisiana and 
southern Mississippi and extending northward and eastward during the two following days 
with an average fall of 2..") inches over the lower Mississippi Valley and somewhat less over 
the Oliio Vallej'. At the same time a heavy blanket of moist !?now was deposited over Missouri 
and Kansas, with an average water equivalent of over 1 inch. There was also some snow, 
l)robabiy sufficient to make one-half inch of water, over the northern portion of the Ohio River 
watershed. As the soil was deeply frozen after the long and cold winter, this large snowfall 
was equivalent to another heavy rain, and it must necessarily run into the rivers as soon as the 
lemperatures rose to normal conditions or another rainstorm came. Should the high tempera- 
tures and the rain come coincidently, as the}' do during southwestern storms, conditions would 
i)ecome still more threatening. There were no longer any doubts that a severe flood would 
ocfiir. The oidy question was as to the final oiilcome which was now entirely dependent upon 
llie contingency of additional heavjf rains in the near future. If there should be more the flood 
heights must certainly pi-ove to be the greatest of record fi'om Cairo (o (he Passes should the 
levees remain intact. 

The suspense was not prolonged, for on March 26, one day after (ho fourth stoi-ui uu)ved 
into the Atlantic Ocean, the fifth one appeared over Nevada. The river stages at various 
places and tlie changes in ow. week from Helena northward, due to tlu^ third and foui'lh stoi-uis, 
wei'c as follows: 



OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI I'LOODS OP 1912. 
Table III. — River stages, Mar. 26, 1912. 

Station. River. 



15 



Cinciunati, Ohio. . . 
Evansville, Iiid . . . 
Nashville, Tenn.... 
Johnson ville, Tenn. 

Paducah, Kv 

Caii-o, 111...: 

Kansas City, Mo 

Hannibal, Mo 

St. Louis, Mo 

New Madrid, Mo. . . 
Memphis, Tenn. . . 

Helena, Ark 

Little Rock, Ark... 
Arkansas City, Ark. 
Yazoo City, Miss. . . 

Vicksburg, Miss 

Natchez, Miss 

Alexandria, La. . . . 
Baton Rouge, La. . 
Donaldsonville, La. 

New Orleans, La 

Monroe, La 

Simmesport, La 

MeMlle, La 



Ohio 

do 

Cumberland. 
Tennessee ... 

Ohio 

do 

Missouri 

Mississippi . . 

do 

do 

do 

do 

Arkansas. . . 
Mississippi. . 

Yazoo 

.Mississippi. . 

do 

Red 

Mississippi. . 

....do 

do 

Ouachita 

Atchafalaya . 
....do 



Flood stage. 



F(cl. 



50 
35 
40 
25 
43 
45 
22 
13 
30 
34 
33 
42 
23 
47 
25 
45 
46 
36 
35 
28 
18 
40 
41 
37 



Stage 
Mar. 20. 



Feel. 
52. 2 
41.0 
27. 6 
29.2 
43.3 
49.2 
13.8 
10.0 
24.7 
38.8 

. 35. 3 
42.0 
14.0 
45.5 
23.8 
43.0 

.42.6 
22. 7 
3L3 
24.7 
15. 4 
35. 9 
36.0 
36.1 



Chang(; one 
week. 



Fed. 
+ 5.6 
+ 3.8 
-10.3 
+ 2.4 
+ 7.2 
+ 8.8 
+ 4.9 
+ 3.8 
+ 6.0 
+ 7.2 
+ 6.1 
+ 4.6 
+ 1.4 
1.3 
1.0 
1. ] 
+ 1.5 
+ 0.1 
+ 1.0 
+ 0.8 
+ 0.2 
+ 4.4 
+ L7 
+ 1.2 



+ 

+ 
+ 



Owing to stagnant pressni'e conditions in the extreme West, the fifth storm did not reach 
Texas until the morning of March 28, when rains Avere falling over the great central valleys. 
Approximately 1 inch of rain fell, with the greatest fall below Cairo ; and the storm also melted 
and brought out the heavy, moist snow that had fallen during the preceding storm, so that 
tlie run-off was practically doubled. It was now certain that, should the levees hold, all pre- 
vious high-water records from Cairo to Memphis would be exceeded, and equally certain that 
another heavy rain would result in similar conditions from Mem^^his south to the mouth of 
the river. Again the period of suspense was short, for on the evening of March 29 another 
disturbance, the sixth and last of the remarkable series, was central over Utah. It moved 
more slowly than its predecessors and did not reach eastern Texas until the morning of April 1, 
moving then to the northeastward over the Ohio Valley. It happened, unfortunately, that the 
rains from this storm were heaviest over those sections where they were least desired. Over 
Louisiana and southern Mississippi, Avhere another inch or so of rain would not have changed 
conditions materially, the rainfall was light, while to the northward almost as far as St. Louis 
and to the eastward over Tennessee and Kentucky it was heavy, especially over eastern Arlcansas 
and the Yazoo Valley. As a result the rate of rise in the lower Ohio and the lower Mississippi 
was maintained or increased, the Cumberland passed the flood stage, the Tennessee rose more 
rapidly, while the Missouri east of Kansas City, the Mississippi from Hannibal to Cairo, the 
lower Arkansas, the "Wliite and the Black Rivers also passed the flood stage. There could be 
no further doubt, and warnings were issued that the coming flood heights from Cairo to the 



16 



V\ilO AND MlSSISSirri ll.OODS OF 1912. 



Gulf of Mi'xico would he (ho <irealcst in history. Tlie stages :U lliis lime and tlio changes m 
one week were as follows: 

Table IV. — River stages, Apr. 2, 1912. 



Stalion. 



River. 



Ciuciuuati, Ohio Ohio 

Kvan.sville, lud do 

X;L4iville, Teiin Cumberland. 

Johnsouville, Tenu Tennessee. . . 

Paducah, Ky Ohio 

Cairo, 111 '. do 

Kansa.s City, Mo Missouri 

llannil)al. Mo Mississippi. . 

St. I,,ouL<, Mo do 

Xew Madrid, Mu do 

McMnphis, Tenii do 

Helena, .Vrk do 

Little Rock. .\rk Arkansas . . . 

.Vrkansas City, Ark i Mississippi. . 



1 Flood stage. 



Feel. 



Change one 
week. 



Yazoo City, Miss. 

Vicksburg, Miss 

Natchez, MLs? 

Alexandria, La. . . . 
Baton Rouije, La. . 
Donaldson ville. La. 
New Orleans, La... 

Monroe, La 

Simmesport, La 

Melville, La 



Yazoo. 
Mississippi. . 

....do 

Red 

Mississippi. . 

....do 

do 

Ouachita 

Atchafalava . 
do..."... 




The rains continued during April and May Y^-ith more or less frequency, and at times they 
wei'e heavy, but they do not appear to have done more in the main stream than to prolong 
the high-water period, as in most instances the loss of w^ater through the crevasses more than 
oll>et the effects of the rains. An exception was noted at New Orleans, where during the 
evening of May 10 nearly 7 inches of rain fell, forcing the river up to the remarkably high 
stage of 22 feet, or 4 feet above the flood stage, a few hours later. High southerly winds, 
however, were an important factor in causing this stage, and a decline to the actual high-Avater 
level followed shortly afterwards. 

-Vmong the appendices to this report will he found copies of the United States Weather 
Bureau charts (Nos. 2 to 7. inclusive) show-ing the storms directly contributory to the flood, and 
al.-o copies of the Weekly Snow^ Charts (Nos. 8 to 11, inclusive) showing the depth of snow on 
(lie irroiind nl diU'ercnl (inies duriu£>; the flood. 



nUR.VTIOX OV THE FLOOD. 

.\s the Oliin River at Evansvilltv Tnd.. roaclied the Oood stage of 35 feet on Mart'h IS. the 
floor! may be considered to have begun on that da\. The Mississippi River at New Orleans. 
T.,a., fell below the flood stage of IS feet on June S. and this day may be considered to have 
been the last day. This would make the total duration of the flood 88 days. Tn the Atchafalaya 
Iviver the flood lasted until June 19, on which day the rixcr at M<'lville, La., fell below the 
flood stage of 37 feet. Flood stages in this river, howe\er. were not lecorded until April 9., 
when the stage of 41 feet was first reached at Simmesport. T.a.. making the flood duration 
72 days. The Yazoo River was in flood for 75 days, beginning on .Vpiil 1 and ending June 14. 
while (ho lower Ouachita River was in flood for f)2 days, beginning on .Vpril t and ending on 
Juno 4 at Afonroe, La. 

'I"he first ri.se began on February 21 with llu> adxciit of a typical sduthwestern storm, but 
early in March it was followed Ijy a decline that cnuliiiucd foi' a weel< or 10 days as far south 
a.s Helena, Ark. Below the inoiith of the .\rlvansas IJixci- ihe initial rise \v!\s prailically iiniii- 



OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI FLOODS OF 1912. 17 

terrupted. The duration of the flood was materially increased by some abnormally heavy 
rains that fell over the entire Avatershed east of Kansas City during the last few days of 
April. These rains sent a second flood wave down the river, with I'esulting secondary crests 
only 0.5 foot below the original one at St. Louis, but .5 to 6 feet lower from Cairo to the mouth 
of the St. Francis River. From Helena southward the effects consisted only of a considerable 
prolongation of the original flood wave. The hydrographs (Diagram III, appendix) show 
the actual conditions that prevailed from March 1 to June 10, inclusive. Hydrographs of the 
floods of 1882, 1897, and 1903 are also shown. (Diagrams IV, V,. and VI.) ^ From these 
hydrographs it will be seen that the Ohio lliver at Cincinnati developed Iwo distinct majoi- 
cj'csts, one on Marcli 27, when the stage was i)'dA feet, and another on April 5 and G, when the 
stage was 51.7 feet. Tliere was also a minor crest of 30.7 feet on April 30 following a decline 
to 21.9 feet on April 26. In all, the Ohio Iviver at Cincinnati was above the flood stage of 
50 feet on 10 days. 

There were two crests in the Mississippi River at St. Louis, one of 30.8 feet on April 5, 
and another of 30.3 feet on April 30, the latter resulting from the heavy rains of April 25 and 
2(). The river was above the flood stage of 30 feet on 10 days. At Cairo the Ohio River first 
reached the flood stage of 45 feet on March 22, and from that time until the end of the flood 
there were two crests, one of 54 feet on April 6 and 7, and another of 49.3 feet on May 4 and 5. 
The stage of 54 feet on April 6 and 7 was 1.8 feet higher than the previous high-water record 
of February 27, 1883, and only the failure of the levees in the immediate vicinity and below 
prevented a crest stage of at least 55 and possibly 56 feet, the latter stage representing the 
maximum capacity of the Cairo City Levee. Flood stages prevailed for 45 days in all. 

At JNIemphis there were also two crests, corresponding with the conditions at Cairo. The 
river first reached the flood stage of 33 feet on March 24, and did not fall below it for 60 days. 
The great crest occurred on April 6, when the stage was 45.3 feet, 5 feet above the previous 
high-water mark of February 3, 1907; and here again the failure of the levees prevented a 
stage of at least 47 feet, or nearly 7 feet higher than the stage of 1907. The second crest of 
38.9 feet occurred on May 10. 

At Helena the flood stage of 42 feet was passed on March 26, and a stage below 42 feet 
was not again reached until May 26, making a total of 62 days that the river was above the 
flood stage. The highest stage occurred on April 21, and was 54.4 feet, 2.6 feet above the pre- 
vious high-water record of April 4, 1897. There was but one crest after the great rise set in. 

At Vicksburg the flood stage of 45 feet was reached on March 31, and the river was at 
or above the flood stage until May 31, a period of 62 days. There were two crests; one a jDrin- 
cipal one of 52.1 feet on April 12, and a secondary one of 48.4 feet on May 6 and 7. Heavy 
rains over the Yazoo watershed were responsible for the second crest. The high stage of 62.1 
feet was 0.4 foot lower than the record stage of April 16, 1897, the Panther Forest and Salem 
crevasses being responsible for the deficiency in 1912. Had these levees remained intact, 
the crest stage at Vicksburg vrould haA^e been 53.5 feet or 54 feet, and, if only one of the two 
levees had held, it is very probable that the high-water mark of 1897 would have been exceeded 
somewhat. 

At New Orleans the river was above the flood stage of 18 feet from April 10 to June 8, 
inclusive, a period of 60 days. There was a single crest of 22 feet in the early morning of 
May 11. This was 1.6 feet above the previous high-water record of April 6 and 7, 1903, and 
was partially due to an unfortunate c()ml)ination of high southerly Avinds and torrential local 
rains. Conditions above New Orleans had indicated a maximum stage of 21.5 feet, which was 
the stage actually reached after the effects of the high winds and local rains had disappeai'od 
a few hours later. 

Records were also exceeded in the Atchafalaya River, the excess ranging from 2.2 to 2.8 
feet. The Ouachita River failed by nearly 3 feet to equal the record of 1874. 

14442—13 2 



18 



OTTTO AND :\riR?;TSSIPPI FLOODS OF 1912. 



FLOOD STAGES, 1912 — COMPARATIVE DATA. 

Table V shows the highest stages reached at various jjlacos diiiiiiii- tlie Hood, tocetlicr with 
(lie dates thereof; also the highest recorded stages and dates at tlie same places previously to 
the flood of 1912, and the departures of the latter from the same. By flood stage is meant the 
stage above which damaging overflow ordinarily begins, and the data are repeated for the sake 
of convenience. On March 1, 1912, the flood stage at Memphis was increased from 33 to 35 
feet, but for inirposes of comparison the old flood stage of 33 feet has been used throughout 
this report. 

Table V. — Coviparalive data. 



station. 



River. 



Cincinnati Ohio 

lOvanevillc do 

Xashvillf j Cumlierland . 

Jolinsonville I Tennes-see.. . 

Padiicah Ohio 

Cairo ' do 

Kauf^as City ■ Missouri 

Hannibal : Mississippi . . 

St. Louis do 

do 

do 

do 

Arlcansas 

Missis.sippi . . 



New Madrid 

Mempliis 

Helena 

Liitlo Rock , 

Arkansas City 

Yazoo City 1 Yazoo.. . 

Vicksburg Mississippi. . 

.Natchez i do 

.Mexandria ■ Red 

Raton Rouge Mississippi.. 

Donaldsonvillc do 

Xew Orleans do 

^lonroe I Ouachita 

.Siinmesport ' Atcliafalaya. 

Melville do 





Highest 




stage. 


Feet. 


Feet. 


50 


53.4 


35 


42. G 


40 


46.5 


25 


35.4 


43 


49.9 


45 


54.0 


22 


23.2 


13 


19.0 


30 


30.8 


34 


44.0 


33 


45.3 


42 


54.4 


23 


24.0 


47 


55.4 


25 


30.4 


45 


52.1 


46 


51.4 


36 


33.6 


35 


43.8 


28 


34.8 


18 


22.0 


40 


46.2 


41 


50.1 


37 


41.9 



1912 Date. 



Mar. 27 

Mar. 31 

Apr. 8 

Apr. 6 

Apr. 8-11... 
Apr. 6-7.... 

Apr. 17 

Apr. 8 

Apr. 5 

Apr. 5-6.... 

Apr. 6 

Apr. 12.... 

May 4 

Apr. 12 

Apr. 17 

Apr. 12 

Apr. 14-17.. 

Apr. 22 

May 11, 13. 

May n 

May 11 

Apr. 22 

May 11-16.. 
May 6-15... 



Highest 


stage. 


Feet. 


71.1 


48.0 


56.3 


48.0 


54.2 


52.2 


38.0 


22.5 


41.4 


41.5 


40.3 


51.8 


32.6 


53.0 


36.5 


52.5 


50.4 


41.8 


40.6 


32.8 


20.4 


49.1 


47.3 


39.7 



Previous date. 



Feb 

Feb 

Jan. 

Mar. 

Feb. 

Feb. 

June 

June 

June 

Feb. 

Feb. 

Apr. 

May 

Mai-. 

.'\.pr. 
Mar. 
July 
May 
May 
Apr. 



May 
June 



14, 1884 

19, 1884 

22, 1882 

24, 1897 

23, 1884 

27, 1883 

20, 1844 

8, 1903 

28, 1844 

24, 1884 

3, 1907 

4, 1897 

^, 1844 

27, 1903 

-, 1882 

16, J897 

28, 1903 

6. 1908 

13-15, 1897.. 

13, 1897 

6, 7, 1903.... 

,1874.... 

— , 1897 

22, 23, 1908.. 



1912. 



Feet. 
-17. 

- 6. 

- 8. 
-12. 

- 4. 

+ 1. 
-14. 

- 3. 
-10. 
+ 2. 
+ 5. 
+ 2. 

- 8. 
+ 2. 

- 6. 

- 0. 

+ 1. 

- 8. 
+ 3. 
+ 2. 
+ 1. 

- 2. 
+ 2 
+ 2 



.2 



An inspection of the above table shows that new higli-water marks were established from 
Cairo to New Orleans, except in the vicinity of Vicksbiirg, where a higher stage was prevented 
Iiy the crevasses at Panther Forest, Ark., and at Salem, near Lake Providence, La. Had not 
these crevasses occurred, or had they occurred several days later, the crest stage at Vicksburg 
would certainly have been at least 1 foot above the high-water mark of April IC, 1897, when 
the stage was 52.5 feet. The crest stage of 22 feet at New Orleans represented the maximum 
effect of wind and water, and was as high as it could have been under any combination of 
existing circumstances. 



J'rrHpitation. — During the inondi ol' Jiiuiiary, H)12, ihe pi('cl|ii(iil ion was gciicialK di'li- 
cicnt over the Mississi|:)pi Basin exce[)t soutlieastern Louisiana, with llie greatest deficieucy. 
soniclhing over 2 inches, over the Cumberland and tlie Tennessee watersheds, and between 1 
,iiid J inches over the remaining areas east of Kan.sas City, except along the lower Ohio River, 
\\\\{-vv IJu're was a slight excess. In Februtiry t,here w,as almost a similar deficiency east of 
the ninety-fifth meridian, and a slight excess to the westward, while in March there was a 
general excess except over the Mississippi Valley above Keokuk, Iowa, and over the extreme 
Xf.rtliwcst. The excess ranged from 2 to 4 inches, and was greatest over northwestern Georgia, 
norlhcrn .Mabama, Mississippi, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana, comprising princi- 



OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI FLOODS OF 1912. 19 

pally the watersheds of the Tennessee, Yazoo, low-er Mississippi, lower Arkansas, and Ouachita 
Eivers. For the period from January 1 to April 2, inclusive, the latter being the date of the 
last storm directly concerned in the flood causation, there was an excess of from 2 to 2.5 inches 
over the Missouri Basin oast of Kansas City, and somewhat less to the northwestward; between 
1 and 2 inches over the lowei" Ohio Basin, and generally from 2 to 2.5 inches over the remainder 
of the Mississippi Basin below the mouth of the Missouri River. There was, however, a defi- 
ciency, due to light January and February rains, of over 2 inches in the district extending from 
the extreme lower Yazoo Valley southwestward through centi'al Louisiana, and an enorinous 
excess over southeastern Louisiana, amounting to 5 inches at New Orleans and 19 inches at 
Donaldsonville, La. This excess was due to the fact that the January rains, as well as those 
of March, were unusiuilly heavy. 

Charts Nos. 12 to 19, inclusive (appendix), show the total and norjual precipitation by 
months (the data for the first two days of April being incorporated with those for March), 
the total and normal precipitation for the entire period from January 1 to April 2, inclusive, 
and the departures from the normals for each month and for the entire period. 

Preceding and during the flood of 1882 there was an excess of from 1 to 8 inches of pre- 
cipitation above Cairo, except in the Missouri Valley, and from 8 to 12 inches below. There 
was a great excess (3 to 11 inches) beloAv Cairo in January, and a comparatively small one 
above, while in February there was a general excess east of Kansas City, ranging from 1 to 7 
inches, with the maximum over southern Illinois, southeastern Missouri, and Arkansas. Dur- 
ing March the precipitation was nearly normal above Cairo, and from 2 to 4 inches in excess 
below. The flood of 1882, however, was a Februaiy flood, and the precipitation of March was 
not of material consequence. 

Charts Nos. 20 to 26, inclusive (appendix), show the total and normal precipitation for 
January, February, and March, 1882, the total and normal precipitation for January and 
February combined, the departures from the normals for January and February, and for the 
two months combined. 

In 1897 the precipitation was much less than in 1882. There was an excess in January 
over the lower Missouri and the Arkansas Basins and in the Central Valley, which brought on 
the normal winter rise. During February the precipitation was moderate, and really deficient, 
except over the upper Ohio watershed, but much of that over the Ohio Basin occurred within 
a short period of time, and started the flood. During March there was a general excess east 
of Kansas City, ranging, as a rule, from 2 to 4 inches above Cairo, and from 4 to 6 inches below. 
Roughly speaking, the excess in 1897 was only about one-half that of 1882, with the rapidity 
of fall as the balancing factor. 

Charts Nos. 27 to 32, inclusive (appendix), show the normal precipitation and the actual 
conditions that occurred. 

The precipitation that caused the flood of 1903 did not differ greatly in amount from that 
of 1897. although there was great difTerence in its distribution. In 1903 the excess above Cairo 
was only about one-half as large as in 1897, while below Cairo it was nearly double, the heaviest 
rains falling during February below Cairo, and during March above. 

The charts Nos. 33 to 35, inclusive (appendix), show the actual and normal precipitation 
for January, February, and March, 1903. 

A comparison of the precipitation charts discloses tlie fact that the precipitation preceding 
and during the flood of 1882 was much greater than that of the three other floods. That of 
1897 was somewhat, although not decidedh', greater than that of 1903. and also somewhat 
greater than that of 1912, Avhile that of 1903 was the least of all. So that measured by the 
amount of precipitation, the relative order of the four great floods was as follows : 1882, 1S97, 
1912, and 1903. These data, while of some interest, are not of great importance, as the rate 
of fall and the interval betAveen rainstorms, as well as the character of the seasons, are the 
natural controlling factors. 



20 



OHIO AND MISSTSSIPPT FT.OODS OF 1912. 



Comparative stages. — The table immediately following shows the highest stages reached 
at various stations during the floods of 1SS2, 1897, 1903, and 1912, the highest stage at each 
station during the four floods being in italics. No reference is made to dates, and the table 
is inserted merely to display comparative data in convenient form. 

Diagrams Nos. I and II (ai^pendix), also show the same data in another form, but for a 
limited number of stations only. 

'r.\nLK No. VI. — IJighesl river stages at various places (luring the floods of 1882, 1897, I'JOS, J912, and 1913.^ 



Slalioii. 



KiviT. 



Cincinnati, Ohio Ohio 

Evansville, Ind do 

Nash\'ille. Tenn ' Cumberland . 

Johnson\dlle, Tenn Tennessee... 

Paducah, Ky Ohio 

Cairo, 111 do 

Kansas City, Mo | Missouri 

Hannibal, Mo ! Mississippi . . 

8t. Louis, Mo • do 



New Madrid, Mo do 

Memphis, Tenn do 

Helena, Ark do 

T,itUe Rook, Ark Arkansas 

-Vrkansas City, .\rk Mississippi. . 

Yazoo City, Miss Yazoo 

Vicksljurg, Mis.s Mississij)])i . . 

.Vatchez, Miss : do 

.Vloxandria, La ' Red 

Baton Rouge, La , Mississippi. . 

l)onaldson\nlle. La do 

New Orleans, T>a do 

Monroe, La Ouachita 

Simmesport, La Atchafalaya. 

Melville, La do 



Highest stage (feet). 



1882 



58. G 
44.9 
55.1 
43.8 
49.9 
51.8 



7.0 
28.2 



1897 

Cl.l 
43.6 
48.7 
48. 
50.9 
51.6 
22.8 
20.8 
31.0 



35.0 
47.2 
25.7 



48.8 



34.8 



15.8 



37.1 
51.8 
21.4 
51.9 
31.5 
52.5 
49. 8 
26.3 
40.6 
32.8 
19.5 
37.9 



36.1 



1903 

53.2 
42.4 
40.7 
33.7 
47.6 
50.6 
^35.0 
"^22.5 
-38.0 
39.5 
40.1 
51.0 
24.8 
53.0 
28.7 
51.8 
50.4 
36.2 
40.0 
32.2 
20.4 
44.5 



38.7 



1912 



53.4 
42.6 
46.5 
35.4 
49.9 
54.0 
23.2 
19.0 
30.8 
44.0 
45.3 
54.4 
24.0 
55.4 
,30.4 
52.1 
51.4 
33.6 
43.8 
34.8 
22.0 
46.2 
50.1 
41.9 



1913' 



70.0 
48.4 
44.9 
33.3 
54.3 
54.8 
21.9 
14.3 
27. 2 
44.5 
46.5 
55.2 
17.3 
55.1 
29.8 
52.3 
52.4 
24.2 
41.3 
32.7 
20. 5 
36.9 
46.9 
41.7 



' Supplied in 1913. 



* Occurred later than the lower Mississippi flood. 



An inspection of tlie above table shows clearly that there has been a steady increase in Ibo 
flood heiglits below Cairo without a corresponding increase in the quantity of ]n-eci]iita(ion. 
While the highest stages occurred in 1912, the greatest i)recipitation occurred in 1882, and while 
lliere were no marked differences in the quantity of jn-ecipitation in 1897 and 1908. yet the 
stages in the latter year were considerably higher, e.xcept in certain localities where levee 
crevasses in 1903 were followed by some depression in the flood plane. This absence of the 
natural relation between volume and stage is, of course, due to some cause other than differences 
in the quantity of precipitation, and that cause is the influence of the levees which have grad- 
ually been extended until the entire river has been practically canalized between Cairo and the 
T'asses. It .shotild be .stated, however, that the flood of 1912 occurred later in the sea.son than 
usual, permitting the northern and western flood waters to meet and combine with those from 
llie eastern tributaries, and thereby to inci'eiise sonicw li;ii (he stages from Cairo southward. 

Just what effect the iijiper Mississipi)i stages had upon the stage at Cairo can not now be 
staled with precision. However, the crest stage of 19.!) feel .\[ Paducah, Ky., in 1912 indicated 
some disliirl):iiice of the uofiiiai gage relations between that place and C!airo. the stage of T) I feci 
al (lie laKer pl;i<'e li;i\iiig been .somewhat loo higii. Ii\ 1882 with about the sanu' general condi- 
tions over I he Ohio watershed above Cairo ("Cincinnati about 5 feel higher than in 1912. but with 
(he Cumberland and Tennessee in modeiale flood only) the crest stage at Paducah Avas 50 feet, 
almost exactly the .same as in 1912. In 1882 the crest stage at Cairo was 51.9 feet, with 28.2 feet at 
St. I.ouis, whereas in 1912 (he crest stage at Cairo was 54 feet (and would have been at least 
55 feet had the levees held), while the .stage al St. Louis was 30.8 feet, or 2.G feet hio-her than 



OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI l''JJ>()I)S OF l!>12. 



21 



in 1882. How much of this 2.1 or possibly 3.1 feet of excess at Cairo came from the excess of 
•2.6 feet at St. Louis, and hoAA' much was clue to the extension of the levee system, the writer is 
unable to state. 

Table VII shows in another form the progressi\'e influence of k^vee construction upon the 
gage relations between Cairo and Helena. 

Table VII. — Oage relations hetween Cairo and New Madrid, Memphis and Helena. 





Number of feet above or below Cairo stage. 


Year. 


Cairo stage. 


New Madrid. 


Memphis. 


Helena. 


1882 


Feet. 

51. 8 
51. 6 
50. 6 
54.0 


Feet. 

"'-ll.'l' 
-10.0 


Feet. 

-16.8 
-14.5 
-10.5 
- 8.7 


Feet. 

4 6 


1897 


+ .2 
+ .4 
+ .4 


1903 


1912 





The effects of levee crevasses were less noticeable at Memphis than at New Madrid or 
Helena, and the figures show that with an open river, as in 1882, the difference between the 
Cairo and Memphis stages was nearly 17 feet, whereas at the present time with a clo.sed river 
it is only about 9 feet, indicating a rise of 8 feet at Memphis due to the building of levees. 
As the levee system is now jn-actically complete, so far as linear extent is concerned, this differ- 
ence of about 8 feet will probably stand for the future, it being assumed that the losses througli 
crevasse effect during the flood of 1912 were about the same at Cairo as at Memjihis. 

Comparatinc duration. — Table No. VIII shows the number of days the rivers at various 
places were at or above the flood stage and the number of days they were 5 feet or more above tlie 
flood stage during the floods of 1882, 1897, 1903, and 1912. ^ 

Table VIII. 



station. 


River. 


Flood 
stage. 


Number of days river was at or 
above flood stage. 


Number of days river was 5 feet 
or more above flood stage. 




1SS2 


-1897 


1903 


1912 


1882 


1897 


1903 


1912 


Ciuciiuiati Ohio . . 


Ohio 


Feet. 
50 
35 
40 
25 
43 
45 
22 
13 
30 
34 
33 
42 
23 
47 
25 
45 
46 
36, 
35 
28 
18 
40 
41 
37 


9 
60 
30 

'"59" 

56 







""65" 
79 
6 
2 

'""39' 
29 

'""28" 

"'"o" 


7 
33 
16 
40 
32 
48 

6 
46 

5 
54 
53 
61 


50 
71 
70 
62 


64 
67 
52 




8 

45 

] 

18 

14 

25 







53 

54 

67 

2 

42 

47 

59 

54 

65 
66 
62 
38 


10 
31 
16 
30 
23 
45 

8 
17 
10 
57 
60 
62 

4 
61 
75 
62 
63 


69 
66 
60 
62 
69 
81 


3 
20 

24 

'""l6" 

10 







"""o" 

5 



""o 



'o' 


6 

24 

6 

30 

13 

19 



7 



19 



35 





34 

37 





IS 









18 


1] 



s 




8 

13 
22 

"o 

13 


21 


5 

- 







Evansville, Ind 


do 


21 


Nashville, Tenn 


Cumberland 

Tennessee 


8 


.Tohnsonville, Tenn , . . . 


12 


Paducah , Ky 


Ohio 


13 


Cairo 111 


do 


22 


Kansas ( 'itv , Mo 


Missouri 





Hannibal , Mo 


Mississippi . ... 


4 


St. Louis Mo - 


do 





New Madrid, Mo 


do 


25 


Memphis Tenn 


do 


37 


Helena Ark . . 


do 


50 


Little Rock, Ark 


Arkansas 





Arkansas City, Ark 

Yazoo Citv, Miss 


Mississippi .... 


26 


Yazoo - 

Mississippi 


23 


Vicksburg, Miss 


11 


Natchez, Miss 


do 


8 


Alexandria La . . 


Red 





Baton Rouge, I^a 

Donaldsonville, La. 


Mississippi 

do 


IS 
23 


New Orleans La 


do - -. 





Monroe. La 

Simmesport, La 

Melville La 


Ouachita 

Atchafalaya 

do 


33 
43 







45 




















22 



OHIO A.NMt MISSISSIiMM I'l.OOlJS OK VMi. 



It i.s rather dilHoiilt to decide I'roju the above figures as to the relative ini[)()rtaiice of thesc- 
four floods, but it appears that, measured by volume of water, the flood of 1882 was the greatest. 
It is true that the confinement of the waters between the levees in 1897, 1903, and 1912 resulted 
in a greater velocity of stream flow and consequent shortening of the flood period, but this con- 
dition was probably modified considerably by the return of the overflow and crevasse water 
wliich would operate to prolong the flood period. It is noted, however, that the extreme flood 
heiglits were more prolonged in 1912 than in 1882, 1897, or 1903, due both to levee effect and to 
the slow return of the overflow and crevasse water. The general superiority of the flood of 
1897 over that of 1903 is also indicated, as well as the inferiority of the former to those of 
1882 and 1912. 

Relative impwtance of the four foods — Final conclusions. — If the estimates of the relative 
importance of the floods of 1882, 1897, 1903, and 1912, as stated in the foiTgoing, are accepted 
as correct, the general conclusions may be summarized as follows: 

Table IX. — Relative importance of the floods of 1882, 1897,, IMS, wnA 1912. 



Asto- 


Relative order. 


First. 


Second. 


Third. 


Fourth. 


IVi'cipitation 


1882 
1912 
1912 
1912 


1897 
1903 
1882 
1897 


1912 
1897 
1897 
1903 


1903 


Staw 


]882 


Duration 


1903 


As a whole 


1882 







The maximum stage is of course the principal factor, the one that governs in any discussion 
of the problem. It is the basis of comparison for the past and of estimates for the future, and 
all measures that may Ije devised for absolute in-otection from future floods must be predicated 
uj-oh probable gage lioiglits, and be measured by them. To the flood of 1912, therefore, must 
be assigned first place in the flood history of the lower Mississippi Valley. 



DAMAGE AND LOSSES. 



In the statement regarding damage and losses no attention will be paid to the impairment 
of the levoes and (lie nmouiit o! luoiioy necessary to restore tlieni. The estimates given will 
Ik' liini(<-(l lo damage (o and losses of pi'operty and ci-ops and to the losses occasioned by (he 
enfori-ed suspension oF business, ll must be reiuembei-ed lliat il is at all times extremely dilli- 
cnlt to arrive at any accurate conclusion as to losses from Hoods, and the figures given hero 
will, f)f course, be estimates only. They were, however, based upon careful observation and in 
many instances upon actual reports from those directly interested, and they arc believed to be 
as accurate as it was possible to make them under the conditions existing at the time. Many 
los.ses were of such a character that tlie money equivalent could not be estimated and numy 
others were unreported, so that to the total losses reported it would probably be reasonable and 
safe to add at least 10 per cent for othei-s regarding which data were not available. 

The losses and damage will be classified into four groups as follows: 

1. Properly losses and damage, exclusive of crops. 

2. Crop loss and damage. 

3. Damage to farm lands. 

4. Lo.sscs occiisioiicrl (hi-ough enforced suspension of busiiu'ss. 

In the interest of further detail the data will also be localized by reference to existino- 
river <listricls as maintained by llie United States Weallier IJiireaiu it being understood that 
each district includes the (ribulary watersheds from ihe liead(|iiaiiers of the district to the 
headquarters of the one immedalely above. 



OillO AND MISSISSIPPI FLOODS OF 1912. 
Table X. — Losses and danuigc occdxumcd hy the pood of JDJ2. 



District. 



St. Louis, Mo , 

Evansville, Ind 

Nashville, Tenn 

Cairo, 111 

Memphis, Tenn 

Fort Smith, Ark 

Little Rock, Ark 

Vicksburg, Miss 

New Orleans, La 

Total 

Plus 10 per cent for unreported losses 

Total 



Property, ex- 
clusive of crops. 



(') 
(') 
$200, 000 
153, 000 
3 9, 000, 000 
35, 000 
{') 
10, 208, 000 
5, 072, 500 



24, 668, 500 
2, 466, 850 



27, 135, 350 



Crops. 



(') 
(') 
{') 
$412, 000 
3, 000, 000 
75, 000 

{') 
14, 310, 000 
13, 870, 000 



31, 667, 200 
3, 166, 720 



34, 833, 920 



Damage to farm 
lands. 



(') 
$14, 000 



15, 000 

240, 000 
125, 000 



394, 000 
39, 400 



433, 400 



Suspension of 
business. 



(') 
(') 

$250, 000 



2, 100, 000 
12, 000, 000 



14, 350, 000 
1, 435, 000 



15, 785, 000 



Grand total, $78,187,670. 

' No serious damaga exospt delay to farming operations. 
- Impossible to obtain estimates.' 



2 Includes all except crops. 

' No serious damage. Some replanting necessary. 



The Icsses sustained liy tlie railroads were aboul. $4,000,000, or a little more than 5 per cent 
of the total amount. 

As stated before, these figures are approximate only. They were compiled Avith care and it 
is believed that any errors would lean toward the conservative side as a whole. There Avere 
innumerable losses of many kinds that could not be reduced to the basis of dollars and cents, 
and if the actual truth concerning these could have been ascertained, it is probable that the 
totals as given aboA^e would be exceeded by several millions of dollars. 

Above Cairo, where there was little overflow, the total losses wore but a little over $1,000,000. 
In the Memphis district, Avhere the overflowed lands comprised an area of 3,142 .square miles, 
the losses were about $12,000,000, or nearly $4,000 per square mile, of Avhich nearly $1,000 per 
square mile was in crops, actual or prospective. It was assumed that in per cent of the over- 
flowed area WiOuld not be replanted, and that 30 per cent of the remainder would bear only a 
minimum crop because of tlie late planting. In the Vicksburg district the oA'erflowed area was 
5,463 square miles in extent and the losses as furnished totaled $20,858,000, or about $4,900 
per square mile, of which over $2,600 per square mile was in crops, actual or prospective, it being 
assumed that not more than two-thirds of a full crop would be raised during the year. In the 
New Orleans district the oA^erflowed area amounted to about 9,000 square miles and the losses 
Avere estimated at $31,007,700, or about $3,452 per squai'e mile, of AAhich altout $1,541 per square 
mile was in crops, actual or prospective. 

The total extent of the overflowed area was 17,605 .square miles, or 59 per cent of the entire 
area subject to overfloAV preA'ious to 1897. This would make the average loss per square mile 
about $4,440, of which nearly $1,980 per square mile Avas in crops, actual or prospective. In 
1897 the overflowed area amounted to 13,578 square miles, about 4,000 square miles less than in 
1912, nnd about 45 per cent of the entire area subject to overfloAV, or 14 per cent less than in 
1912. In 1903 the water overflowed an area of only 6,820 square irJles, or slightly less than 23 
per cent of the entire area subject to overflow. No estimates were made of the losses occasioned 
by these two latter floods, but they were doubtless less per square mile than in 1912, as both 
occurred earlier in the season, thereby largely reducing the item of ]5rospective crop loss. Values 
Aviere also considerably lower in 1897 and 1903 than in 1912. 

The Work of the Weather Bureau in the Forecasting of Floods. 

The most important function of the Weather Bureau in connection Avith the conduct of its 
river and flood service is the preparation and issue of river forecasts and flood warnings. It is 
not a matter of general knowledge that forecasts of coming stages are issued daily along all 
the navigable rivers, and that to the uniform correctness of these forecasts is due a large shafe 



24 OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI FLOODS OF 1912. 

of whatever of success and prosperity has attoiuknl river navigation. Flood forecasts are issued 
for all except the smallest rivers, and with this feature of the work the public is more familiar. 
Precision in the work of river and flood forecasting was first attempted in 1892, and since 
that time the work has been prosecuted with such constantly increasing success and accuracy 
that at the present time the variations of the actual from the forecast stages in all except the 
precipitous mountainous streams are practically negligible, and this notwithstanding the fact 
that the work from Cairo southward has been greatly complicated at times by reason of levee 
crevasses. Let us quote l)riefly from Bulletin E. AYeathcn- Bureau. Floods of the Mississippi 
Txiver. Section lY. paragraph 83 : 

The essential duty of the "Weather Bureau in this work is the issuance of warnings of 
impending floods. For this purpose the official at each river center is assigned a certain terri- 
tory, for the proper warning of which he is held responsible. From the press reports and 
other sources of information it appears that this duty was well performed in the late flood 
(1897). The conditions having become critical, a special warning was issued from the Wash- 
ington office on March 15 that "the im]:)ending flood willprove very destructive in Arkansas 
and northern Louisiana." Again, on March 19. a special warning was issued that " the floods 
in ihe lower Mississippi during the next ten days or Iavo weeks will, in many places, equal or 
exceed in magnitude and dcstructiveness those of any previous vears, and additional warning 
is given to the residents of the threatened districts in Arkansas. Louisiana, and western Missis- 
sippi to remove from the I'egion of danger." Indeed, so completely was the public warned, 
(hnt it caused criticism in certain quarters that the bureau was needlessly alarming the peo]:)le 
in the threatened districts. Subsequent events, however, fully justified the action of the 
AVeather Bureau. 

Similar criticism was made during the flood of 1903 and again dni'ing the present year, 
l)ut in less pronounced form, as previous said experiences had taught the people that the warn- 
ings of the Weather Bureau must be taken at their full significance if loss of life and property 
are to be avoided. It is estimated that during the flood of 1897 property to the value of 
;>1 5.000,000 was moved to places of safety as a result of the Weather Bureau warnings, and 
an equal amount, at least, during the flood of 1903. During the flood of 1912, according to 
such estimates as were obtainable, property to the value of $16,180,000 was saved, of which 
about $10,000,000 was in the district below Vicksburg. Miss. The total annual cost of the river 
and flood service fur the entire country, including telegraph and telephone tolls is about $80,000, 
or only about one-half of 1 per cent of the value of the i)roperty saved in this one flood. 

Specific warnings were issued each day during the flood, and they covered periods of tihiC 
ranging from (liree ov four days to more than foui" weeks in advance. The warnings for New 
Orleans were issued nearly fi\e weeks in advance, and were not changed in the interim except 
as to the date of occMirrence of Ihe crest stage, (lie innnerons o'evasses at times inlerfei'ing with 
the rate of streamflow. 

General warnings ami slalenients were also issued from lime to time at (he central office 
al Washington. A specimen lndlelin follows: 

U. S. l)i:i'Ai;i"Mi;Nr ok AGHicui/ruuE, 

Weather Btjrkau, 
Wnshington, D. C, April 3, 1912. 

SPECIAI, Fl.OdU lUI.I.iynN. 

'I'lic riviT siluation is ci^ilii-al from (^liro (o (lie nuxilli of (be Mississi|)pi. 11' ihc levees 
bold, (lie fl<M»dH will doiibdess be (he greatest of which (he ( JovernuKMit has record. 

Considering; (Im> wa(er now in sight, and without any furdier heavy rain, (he Mississippi 
Kiver bilow Vieksbnrg will rise until the eai'ly i)art oT Abiv. and if the levees hold the river 
will reach «l>out 52 feel at Ka(ehe/,, -12 feet a(" Ba((m Ivouge. 33.5 feet at Donaldsonville, and 
•Jl.5 feet a( New Orleans. These figures are from 1 to 1.5 feel hii>her than anv previous record. 

Tin- warning i.ssued Tuesday foi- a( least 14 feci at Memphis by Sa(ur(lay or Sundav. if 
ilii- levees hold, is repealed ami picparations slioidd be nuide accoi-dingly. The highest water 
a( .Memphis pn'\ ions (o (he pT-cscn( (lood was 10.:', feel on r\'bi-nai'v 3, 1907. 



OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI FLOODS OF 1012. 25 

At Vicksburg the 50-foot stage will be passed by Saturday or Sunday, and if the levees 
hold a stage of between 53.5 and 54 feet is likely to occur later. The highest known water at 
Vicksburg is 52.5 feet, which occurred on April 16, 1897. 

Helena, Ark., will pass the 50-foot stage some time to-day and continue to rise, but the 
g]-eatest stage can not be forecast at this lime, owing to the uncertainty as to the overflow 
water above. 

At Cairo the stage of 56 feet, which was forecast yesterda}' to occur within three or four 
days, will not be reached because of the breaking of the levees below the city, and it is probable 
that the greatest stage will be reached within two days, but not much over 54 feet. 

Warnings of the beginning of these floods were issued by the Weather Bureau as early as 
March 16, and in each ease have preceded the arrival of flood stages. 

WiTxis L. Moore, 
Chief TJ . S. Weather Bureau. 

These bulletins, as well as all forecasts and warnings, were given the widest and most liberal 
distribution through the medium of the telegraph, the telephone, the mails, railroads, boats, 
special messengers, and every other available means, so that all the inhabitants of the flooded 
districts were given ample advance notice as well as the fullest information during the progress 
of the flood. 

A great many testimonials, press and otherwise, were received. These paid tribute to the 
work of the Weather Bureau in connection with the flood. 



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Feet. 



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60 



Memphis 



Helena Greenville Vicksburg Baton Rouge New Orleans 



1913 
1912 



1882 
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Diagram II, Part 1. Crest stages in principal tributaries during floods of 1882 1897 1903 

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